Building on previous systems work on the spread and sustenance of crime, we construct and analyze a dynamical systems model of criminal involvement, arrest, desistance, and rehabilitation to be estimated empirically for interviewees in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We examine how marginal increases in flows between states interact to decrease or increase the long-run level of crime, and whether this varies by subgroup-finding, for example, that marginal increases in the arrest of first-time offenders is slightly criminogenic for all subgroups while increases in the arrest of repeat offenders is not. We study how observed racial disparities along certain pathways interact to generate macro-level disparities in criminal involvement as measured by arrest and self report. Finally, we discuss implications for a broader policy debate on crime control and for competing explanations of the Black-White gap in criminal involvement. 

Download Draft